A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
How labor market flows changed
The FRED Blog
This is crazy: Nestle is getting paid to borrow money
Matt O'Brien
#NotAllLibertarians: An Illustration
Matt Bruenig
Alabama used the states' right argument to ban marriages before — for interracial couples
German Lopez
The Death of the Three-Time Candidate
Josh Zeitz
There’s Something About Money
Paul Krugman
Clueless in Kentucky: Rand Paul’s ideas about the Fed make absolutely no sense
Matt O'Brien
Report: Lynchings were far more common than previously estimated
German Lopez
21 February 2015
18 February 2015
Labor Flows
Yesterday, the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed linked to this interesting post from the always-excellent FRED Blog, which shows comparisons of flows into unemployment from the employed and those not in the labor force and flows out of the labor force from the employed and the unemployed. The following is an expansion of that analysis.
First, let's discuss the variables. We'll start with the basic definitions of employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force. For these, we can rely on our friends at BLS:
Employed: People with jobs are employed.
Unemployed: People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
Not in Labor Force: People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.
Thus we have the following identity: Population = Employed + Unemployed + Not in Labor Force
From these definitions, we can create flow variables that represent the monthly movement from one category to another, since the Current Population Survey is longitudinal. (It tracks the same people over time.) Further, we can make some intuitive assumptions about who is represented by each flow variable.
Employed to Unemployed: These are people who were employed, but now are out of work and looking for a job. This is most likely an involuntary situation.
Employed to Not in Labor Force: These are people who were employed, but now are out of work and not looking for a job. This could be because they retired, or entered school. This is more likely to be a voluntary situation.
Unemployed to Not in Labor Force: These are people who were not employed but looking for work, but no longer looking for a job. This could be because they are discouraged workers, or because they retired after being unemployed, and is most likely an involuntary situation.
Unemployed to Employed: These are people who were not employed but looking for work, but are now employed.
Not in Labor Force to Employed: These are people who were out of work and not looking for a job, but are now employed. They may be recently graduated students, for example.
Not in Labor Force to Unemployed: These are people who were out of work and not looking for a job, and are still out of work but now looking for a job. These may be people who had been discouraged workers, but are now looking again for a job, or recently graduated students who have not yet found work.
(Technical note: all of these variables measure persons 16 years and older, and are seasonally adjusted.)
From Where are They Coming?
This graph shows comparisons of the previous states of currently employed, unemployed, and out-of-labor-force persons.
(Employed or Unemployed) to Out-of-Labor-Force
The red line shows the difference between employed persons and unemployed persons exiting the labor force. What we see from the graph is that, roughly, there are 2 million more people retiring or leaving work for school than giving up looking for work per month.
(Employed or Out-of-Labor-Force) to Unemployment
The brown line shows the difference between employed persons and persons not in the labor force becoming unemployed. What we see from this series is that there are far more people entering unemployment from out of the labor force than from employment.
(Unemployed or Out-of-Labor-Force) to Employed
The green line shows the difference between unemployed persons and persons out of the labor force becoming employed. We can see from the graph that far more of the newly employed were previously not looking for work.
To Where are They Going?
This graph shows comparisons of the current states of previously employed, unemployed, and out-of-labor-force persons.
From Out-of-Labor-Force to (Employed or Unemployed)
The blue line shows the difference between newly employed persons and newly unemployed persons coming from out of the labor force. We can see that many more people entering the labor force are doing so by becoming employed, rather than simply by beginning to look for work.
From Unemployed to (Employed or Out-of-Labor-Force)
The orange line shows the difference between people newly employed, after being unemployed, and unemployed people who have exited the labor force. This is where the unemployed are going. We can see that more unemployed people are finally starting to gain employment rather than leave the labor force entirely. This is about the best news in this analysis.
From Employed to (Unemployed or Out-of-Labor-Force)
The black line shows the difference between people newly unemployed, after being employed, and people exiting the labor force from employment. This is where the employed are going. Those becoming unemployed are simply losing their jobs, but those exiting the labor force directly from employment are most likely either retiring or entering school.
Conclusions
1. Many more people are retiring or leaving work for school, rather than giving up looking for work.
This is reflective of the demographic shifts we are seeing in the United States, as a large bulge of people (the baby boomers) are retiring. It is good that more people leaving the labor force are doing so voluntarily, but this demographic trend will have social insurance implications in the coming decades.
2. There are still a lot of people starting to look for work after a period of not looking.
This is going to mitigate the falling unemployment rate, but is still a mostly unalloyed good.
3. Many more labor-force entrants are immediately entering jobs, rather than simply looking for jobs.
This tracks with the record job creation numbers we've seen over the last several months, and is a very positive sign.
4. The employed are much more likely to leave the labor force than to become unemployed.
This is the other side of the demographic coin. Since fewer people are losing jobs involuntarily, the glut of retiring people dwarfs them. This is good, but will still pose problems down the road.
5. The best result of this analysis is that more unemployed people are finally starting to enter jobs than leave the labor force entirely.
The unprecedented period in which more unemployed people exited the labor force than found jobs is mercifully (nearly) over. As the orange line above shows, we had 25 years in which more people found jobs than quit looking. Even the slight level shift after the 2001 recession still resulted in a positive measure. What may have looked like another level shift (to a negative number) in 2008 might just prove to be temporary.
First, let's discuss the variables. We'll start with the basic definitions of employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force. For these, we can rely on our friends at BLS:
Employed: People with jobs are employed.
Unemployed: People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
Not in Labor Force: People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.
Thus we have the following identity: Population = Employed + Unemployed + Not in Labor Force
From these definitions, we can create flow variables that represent the monthly movement from one category to another, since the Current Population Survey is longitudinal. (It tracks the same people over time.) Further, we can make some intuitive assumptions about who is represented by each flow variable.
Employed to Unemployed: These are people who were employed, but now are out of work and looking for a job. This is most likely an involuntary situation.
Employed to Not in Labor Force: These are people who were employed, but now are out of work and not looking for a job. This could be because they retired, or entered school. This is more likely to be a voluntary situation.
Unemployed to Not in Labor Force: These are people who were not employed but looking for work, but no longer looking for a job. This could be because they are discouraged workers, or because they retired after being unemployed, and is most likely an involuntary situation.
Unemployed to Employed: These are people who were not employed but looking for work, but are now employed.
Not in Labor Force to Employed: These are people who were out of work and not looking for a job, but are now employed. They may be recently graduated students, for example.
Not in Labor Force to Unemployed: These are people who were out of work and not looking for a job, and are still out of work but now looking for a job. These may be people who had been discouraged workers, but are now looking again for a job, or recently graduated students who have not yet found work.
(Technical note: all of these variables measure persons 16 years and older, and are seasonally adjusted.)
From Where are They Coming?
This graph shows comparisons of the previous states of currently employed, unemployed, and out-of-labor-force persons.
(Employed or Unemployed) to Out-of-Labor-Force
The red line shows the difference between employed persons and unemployed persons exiting the labor force. What we see from the graph is that, roughly, there are 2 million more people retiring or leaving work for school than giving up looking for work per month.
(Employed or Out-of-Labor-Force) to Unemployment
The brown line shows the difference between employed persons and persons not in the labor force becoming unemployed. What we see from this series is that there are far more people entering unemployment from out of the labor force than from employment.
(Unemployed or Out-of-Labor-Force) to Employed
The green line shows the difference between unemployed persons and persons out of the labor force becoming employed. We can see from the graph that far more of the newly employed were previously not looking for work.
To Where are They Going?
This graph shows comparisons of the current states of previously employed, unemployed, and out-of-labor-force persons.
From Out-of-Labor-Force to (Employed or Unemployed)
The blue line shows the difference between newly employed persons and newly unemployed persons coming from out of the labor force. We can see that many more people entering the labor force are doing so by becoming employed, rather than simply by beginning to look for work.
From Unemployed to (Employed or Out-of-Labor-Force)
The orange line shows the difference between people newly employed, after being unemployed, and unemployed people who have exited the labor force. This is where the unemployed are going. We can see that more unemployed people are finally starting to gain employment rather than leave the labor force entirely. This is about the best news in this analysis.
From Employed to (Unemployed or Out-of-Labor-Force)
The black line shows the difference between people newly unemployed, after being employed, and people exiting the labor force from employment. This is where the employed are going. Those becoming unemployed are simply losing their jobs, but those exiting the labor force directly from employment are most likely either retiring or entering school.
Conclusions
1. Many more people are retiring or leaving work for school, rather than giving up looking for work.
This is reflective of the demographic shifts we are seeing in the United States, as a large bulge of people (the baby boomers) are retiring. It is good that more people leaving the labor force are doing so voluntarily, but this demographic trend will have social insurance implications in the coming decades.
2. There are still a lot of people starting to look for work after a period of not looking.
This is going to mitigate the falling unemployment rate, but is still a mostly unalloyed good.
3. Many more labor-force entrants are immediately entering jobs, rather than simply looking for jobs.
This tracks with the record job creation numbers we've seen over the last several months, and is a very positive sign.
4. The employed are much more likely to leave the labor force than to become unemployed.
This is the other side of the demographic coin. Since fewer people are losing jobs involuntarily, the glut of retiring people dwarfs them. This is good, but will still pose problems down the road.
5. The best result of this analysis is that more unemployed people are finally starting to enter jobs than leave the labor force entirely.
The unprecedented period in which more unemployed people exited the labor force than found jobs is mercifully (nearly) over. As the orange line above shows, we had 25 years in which more people found jobs than quit looking. Even the slight level shift after the 2001 recession still resulted in a positive measure. What may have looked like another level shift (to a negative number) in 2008 might just prove to be temporary.
14 February 2015
Links of the Week - 13 February 2015
A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
What Chris Christie gets wrong about vaccine deniers
Paul Waldman
This study explains why American labor unions are even more doomed than they look
Matthew Yglesias
A few comments on Inflation, the Unemployment Rate and Demographics
Bill McBride
Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
Bill McBride
Confessions of a congressman: 9 secrets from the inside
Anonymous
Jeb Bush sounds like he's running for Mayor of America
Matthew Yglesias
Every January, over 2 million people lose their jobs
Matthew Yglesias
What Chris Christie gets wrong about vaccine deniers
Paul Waldman
This study explains why American labor unions are even more doomed than they look
Matthew Yglesias
A few comments on Inflation, the Unemployment Rate and Demographics
Bill McBride
Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
Bill McBride
Confessions of a congressman: 9 secrets from the inside
Anonymous
Jeb Bush sounds like he's running for Mayor of America
Matthew Yglesias
Every January, over 2 million people lose their jobs
Matthew Yglesias
Matt O'Brien
Fredrik deBoer
Fredrik deBoer
07 February 2015
Links of the Week - 6 February 2015
A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
Why Saudi Arabia still has public beheadings
Zack Beauchamp
American Sniper is a dishonest whitewash of the Iraq war
Zack Beauchamp
Why Saudi Arabia still has public beheadings
Zack Beauchamp
American Sniper is a dishonest whitewash of the Iraq war
Zack Beauchamp
Joseph Heath
All politics is identity politics
Matthew Yglesias
Mitt Romney isn’t running, but his specter still haunts the GOP
Paul Waldman
The Upper Middle Class Is Ruining America
Reihan Salam
Violence, Property, and Entitlement
Matt Bruenig
The uncertainty around the deficit numbers
Jared Bernstein
Washington only cares about deficits when they’re politically convenient
Ezra Klein
The Great Defender
Chris Brown
Matthew Yglesias
Mitt Romney isn’t running, but his specter still haunts the GOP
Paul Waldman
The Upper Middle Class Is Ruining America
Reihan Salam
Violence, Property, and Entitlement
Matt Bruenig
The uncertainty around the deficit numbers
Jared Bernstein
Washington only cares about deficits when they’re politically convenient
Ezra Klein
The Great Defender
Chris Brown
31 January 2015
Links of the Week - 30 January 2015
A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
These are the 10 cities where the job market improved the most in the last year
Danielle Kurtzleben
Why Uber Will—and Should—Be Regulated
Eric Posner
Job Quality is about Policies, not Technology
The Growth Economics Blog
Senate flashback: The opening day filibuster over a racist senator in 1947
Gregory Koger
The velocity of money
The FRED Blog
Kludge Not
Jordan Weissmann
The Senior Senator From Kentucky
Alec MacGillis
Bitcoin revealed: a Ponzi scheme for redistributing wealth from one libertarian to another
Matt O'Brien
Happy Robert E. Lee Day!
Jamelle Bouie
How Martin Luther King's faith drove his activism
Brandon Ambrosino
These are the 10 cities where the job market improved the most in the last year
Danielle Kurtzleben
Why Uber Will—and Should—Be Regulated
Eric Posner
Job Quality is about Policies, not Technology
The Growth Economics Blog
Senate flashback: The opening day filibuster over a racist senator in 1947
Gregory Koger
The velocity of money
The FRED Blog
Kludge Not
Jordan Weissmann
The Senior Senator From Kentucky
Alec MacGillis
Bitcoin revealed: a Ponzi scheme for redistributing wealth from one libertarian to another
Matt O'Brien
Happy Robert E. Lee Day!
Jamelle Bouie
How Martin Luther King's faith drove his activism
Brandon Ambrosino
26 January 2015
People have got Rights; States haven't.
It's important to remember that "states' rights" is always and everywhere a meaningless concept. It's nothing but an empty rhetorical device, intended to stand in for some other belief or policy prescription. This holds whether the speaker is Ronald Reagan or David Duke, or any of the other myriad demagogues who have mounted feeble defenses of various social cancers.
24 January 2015
Links of the Week - 23 January 2015
A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
Why the NYPD Turned Its Back on the City
Ta-Nehisi Coates
The inflation chicken littles were so wrong: The dollar is on a tear
Matt O'Brien
The top 10 reasons American politics are worse than ever
Jonathan Haidt and Sam Abrams
Most of America’s rich think the poor have it easy
Roberto A. Ferdman
Sci-jacking
Noah Smith
Still Relevant: Sisyphus as Social Democrat: A Review of Richard Parker’s ‘John Kenneth Galbraith’
Brad DeLong
Paul Ryan isn't running for president. He's after something even bigger.
Ezra Klein
The forgotten history of how automakers invented the crime of "jaywalking"
Joseph Stromberg
Republicans block historical marker of Ku Klux Klan massacre
Amber Frost
A Christmas Carol is a defense of charity — and capitalism
Brandon Ambrosino
Lyndon Johnson’s aides are mad that MLK is the hero of Selma
Matthew Yglesias
Before-and-after maps show how freeways transformed America's cities
Timothy B Lee
Damning court filings show Morgan Stanley pushed risky subprime mortgage lending
Danielle Kurtzleben
The substance and politics of Obamacare, in one citizen
Paul Waldman
Keynesians and the Volcker Disinflation
Paul Krugman
Why the NYPD Turned Its Back on the City
Ta-Nehisi Coates
The inflation chicken littles were so wrong: The dollar is on a tear
Matt O'Brien
The top 10 reasons American politics are worse than ever
Jonathan Haidt and Sam Abrams
Most of America’s rich think the poor have it easy
Roberto A. Ferdman
Sci-jacking
Noah Smith
Still Relevant: Sisyphus as Social Democrat: A Review of Richard Parker’s ‘John Kenneth Galbraith’
Brad DeLong
Paul Ryan isn't running for president. He's after something even bigger.
Ezra Klein
The forgotten history of how automakers invented the crime of "jaywalking"
Joseph Stromberg
Republicans block historical marker of Ku Klux Klan massacre
Amber Frost
A Christmas Carol is a defense of charity — and capitalism
Brandon Ambrosino
Lyndon Johnson’s aides are mad that MLK is the hero of Selma
Matthew Yglesias
Before-and-after maps show how freeways transformed America's cities
Timothy B Lee
Damning court filings show Morgan Stanley pushed risky subprime mortgage lending
Danielle Kurtzleben
The substance and politics of Obamacare, in one citizen
Paul Waldman
Keynesians and the Volcker Disinflation
Paul Krugman
17 January 2015
Links of the Week - 16 January 2015
A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
Hayek, Friedman, and the Illusions of Conservative Economics
Robert Solow
Profits Without Prosperity
William Lazonick
1980 And All That
Paul Krugman
Why Mississippi Hates Washington
Curtis Wilkie
Lithuania has officially jumped aboard the Titantic that is the euro
Matt O'Brien
The worst argument against Thomas Piketty yet
Dylan Matthews
The Senate's 46 Democrats got 20 million more votes than its 54 Republicans
Dylan Matthews
This is Paul Krugman's chart of the year, and it's easy to see why
Dylan Matthews
Uber Surge Prices, Part III
Matt Bruenig
Asymmetric Credibility at the Fed and Price-Level Targeting
Jared Bernstein
Hayek, Friedman, and the Illusions of Conservative Economics
Robert Solow
Profits Without Prosperity
William Lazonick
1980 And All That
Paul Krugman
Why Mississippi Hates Washington
Curtis Wilkie
Lithuania has officially jumped aboard the Titantic that is the euro
Matt O'Brien
The worst argument against Thomas Piketty yet
Dylan Matthews
The Senate's 46 Democrats got 20 million more votes than its 54 Republicans
Dylan Matthews
This is Paul Krugman's chart of the year, and it's easy to see why
Dylan Matthews
Uber Surge Prices, Part III
Matt Bruenig
Asymmetric Credibility at the Fed and Price-Level Targeting
Jared Bernstein
10 January 2015
Links of the Week - 9 January 2015
A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
The Pareto distribution and r > g
Nick Bunker
When J.F.K. Secretly Reached Out to Castro
Michael Beschloss
You can’t help today’s middle class with 1930s-era policies
Heather Boushey
One small study that explodes the myth that inequality is efficient
Matthew Yglesias
Where are the teenage employees?
The FRED Blog
Battered and Blue
Jamelle Bouie
Conservatives use N.Y. shooting to bash Obama
Paul Waldman
Blue Lives Matter
Ta-Nehisi Coates
The case for tearing down urban freeways
Timothy B Lee
The Real Origins of the Religious Right
Randall Balmer
The Pareto distribution and r > g
Nick Bunker
When J.F.K. Secretly Reached Out to Castro
Michael Beschloss
You can’t help today’s middle class with 1930s-era policies
Heather Boushey
One small study that explodes the myth that inequality is efficient
Matthew Yglesias
Where are the teenage employees?
The FRED Blog
Battered and Blue
Jamelle Bouie
Conservatives use N.Y. shooting to bash Obama
Paul Waldman
Blue Lives Matter
Ta-Nehisi Coates
The case for tearing down urban freeways
Timothy B Lee
The Real Origins of the Religious Right
Randall Balmer
03 January 2015
Links of the Week - 2 January 2015
A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
The value of everything: inclusive wealth
The Economist
Who you callin’ massive? The CRomnibus actually cuts discretionary spending to historic lows as share of GDP.
Jared Bernstein
20 maps that never happened
Matthew Yglesias
Traffic Jams and Multipliers
David Glasner
Deficits, Mediamacro and Popular Opinion
Simon Wren-Lewis
MV = PQ ?
Jonathan Wight
Dick Cheney doesn't want to call it torture but the media doesn't have to follow
Matthew Yglesias
FRED Adds 768 World Development Indicators
The FRED Blog
The value of everything: inclusive wealth
The Economist
Who you callin’ massive? The CRomnibus actually cuts discretionary spending to historic lows as share of GDP.
Jared Bernstein
20 maps that never happened
Matthew Yglesias
Traffic Jams and Multipliers
David Glasner
Deficits, Mediamacro and Popular Opinion
Simon Wren-Lewis
MV = PQ ?
Jonathan Wight
Dick Cheney doesn't want to call it torture but the media doesn't have to follow
Matthew Yglesias
FRED Adds 768 World Development Indicators
The FRED Blog
31 December 2014
A Quick Note on Trust, Representatives, and Law Enforcement
I'm having a hard time understanding why police officers think they can earn the trust of the people when they literally turn their backs on the people's elected representatives. These organizations have so far to go just to get back to a place at which they can begin to earn that trust. And yet they continue to run as fast as they can in the other direction. I guess one possibility is that earning the trust of the people is just not that high a priority for some of them.
27 December 2014
Links of the Week - 26 December 2014
A weekly collection of links from the Conscience Warrior Newsfeed
How economics is like 1950s Freudian psychology
Andrew Gelman
23 maps that explain how Democrats went from the party of racism to the party of Obama
Andrew Prokop
The gigantic disaster of the CIA’s torture program
Paul Waldman
It doesn’t matter if torture worked. It’s still wrong.
Amanda Taub
Employers Will Have to Raise Wages. They Just Don’t Know It Yet.
Neil Irwin
The Coase theorem and methodological nationalism
Branko Milanovic
How economics is like 1950s Freudian psychology
Andrew Gelman
23 maps that explain how Democrats went from the party of racism to the party of Obama
Andrew Prokop
The gigantic disaster of the CIA’s torture program
Paul Waldman
It doesn’t matter if torture worked. It’s still wrong.
Amanda Taub
Employers Will Have to Raise Wages. They Just Don’t Know It Yet.
Neil Irwin
The Coase theorem and methodological nationalism
Branko Milanovic
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)