2014 Patriots Draft: Historical Comparisons

I recently posted a study of Belichick-era Patriots draft picks, based on the expected draft position of the Patriots in 2014. In this post, I will compare the "average player" taken by the Patriots at those positions since 2000 with the "average player" taken league-wide over the same span.

#29 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 14.26 / 12.83 = 1.11
(This indicates that Patriots draftees in this range play 11% more games per year on average than their peers.)

Starts per year: 13.06 / 8.17 = 1.60

Pro Bowl trips: 2.33 / 0.63 = 3.70

All-Pro selections: 0.33 / 0.14 = 2.36

Years as primary starter: 7.00 / 3.45 = 2.03

Career length*: 7.67 / 5.90 = 1.30

Weighted career approximate value**: 51.67 / 27.07 = 1.91

Belichick grade***: 1.66

This is outstanding. Belichick-drafted players in this range could be thought of as 66% better than the league average in this range.

#62 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 8.96 / 11.03 = 0.81

Starts per year: 5.82 / 6.27 = 0.93

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.35 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.04 = 0.00

Years as primary starter: 2.20 / 2.60 = 0.85

Career length: 4.60 / 5.36 = 0.86

Weighted career approximate value: 15.02 / 20.31 = 0.75

Belichick grade: 0.80

This is a lesser area for Belichick. Players he has drafted have consistently underperformed their peers.

#93 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 5.29 / 10.44 = 0.51

Starts per year: 1.21 / 4.24 = 0.29

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.10 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.05 = 0.00

Years as primary starter: 0.17 / 1.61 = 0.11

Career length: 2.83 / 4.67 = 0.61

Weighted career approximate value: 1.83 / 13.20 = 0.14

Belichick grade: 0.33

This is abysmal. There's really no other way to put it. For Belichick, this range, in relative terms, has been a failure.

#130 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 8.58 / 8.41 = 1.02

Starts per year: 4.10 / 2.70 = 1.52

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.03 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.00 = [N/A]

Years as primary starter: 0.80 / 0.90 = 0.89

Career length: 4.00 / 3.95 = 1.01

Weighted career approximate value: 10.80 / 8.71 = 1.24

Belichick grade: 1.14

This is a value area for Belichick. He drafts players in this range that are 14% better than their peers.

#140 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 8.42 / 9.24 = 0.91

Starts per year: 1.17 / 2.98 = 0.39

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.18 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.08 = 0.00

Years as primary starter: 0.00 / 1.45 = 0.00

Career length: 2.5 / 4.42 = 0.57

Weighted career approximate value: 3 / 10.79 = 0.28

Belichick grade: 0.52

Belichick players are about half as good as their peers in this range. It's not the train wreck that #93 is, but this is not good, by any measure. 

#198 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 7.99 / 6.01 = 1.33

Starts per year: 2.04 / 1.90 = 1.07

Pro Bowl trips: 1.29 / 0.14 = 9.21

All-Pro selections: 0.29 / 0.02 = 14.50

Years as primary starter: 1.71 / 0.72 = 2.38

Career length: 3.71 / 3.12 = 1.19

Weighted career approximate value: 25.67 / 8.06 = 3.18

Belichick grade: 2.14

This is obviously Belichick's best range, given the inclusion of Tom Brady. Even excluding Brady, Belichick's score for this range is 1.64, which is still very good.

#206 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 6.46 / 6.51 = 0.99

Starts per year: 1.53 / 1.69 = 0.90

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.03 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.00 = [N/A]

Years as primary starter: 0.43 / 0.53 = 0.81

Career length: 3.57 / 3.10 = 1.15

Weighted career approximate value: 7.00 / 7.18 = 0.98

Belichick grade: 1.00

This is Belichick's most "average" drafting position. 

#244 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 6.92 / 6.17 = 1.12

Starts per year: 2.00 / 1.55 = 1.29

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.01 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.00 = [N/A]

Years as primary starter: 0.33 / 0.46 = 0.72

Career length: 3.00 / 2.86 = 1.05

Weighted career approximate value: 7.00 / 5.01 = 1.40

Belichick grade: 1.20

This is another top value area for Belichick.


Overall grade: 1.11

This score indicates that, over the range of picks the Patriots have this year, Belichick has drafted 11% better than league average. Without Brady, his overall grade is still 1.04.



*Note that this number is computed using both active players and players out of football, and is therefore not to be interpreted as reflecting an entire career.

**See explanation here. See more explanation here.

***This is the total of the Patriots numbers divided by the total of the league numbers. A score of 1.0 represents a quality equal to that of the league. A score of 1.23 can be interpreted as 23% better than the league average.

2014 Patriots Draft: A Historical Perspective

In preparation for the upcoming NFL Draft, I wanted to have a look at what the Patriots have done at or near the selections they've got this year. I gathered data on their past drafts from Pro Football Reference, and the projected picks from WEEI. I will look at all picks within three of the expected picks in order to gather a more meaningful amount of data. I will post a followup after the draft, as the likelihood the Patriots use all of these picks and no others asymptotically approaches zero. The statistics can be viewed as representative of an "average player" drafted in a given area by Belichick since 2000.

The picks currently held by the Patriots are as follows:

First round: No. 29 overall

Second round: No. 62 overall

Third round: No. 93 overall

Fourth round: Nos. 130 and 140 (140 is compensatory — the last pick of the fourth round)

Fifth round: None (pick dealt to Philadelphia in Isaac Sopoaga trade)

Sixth round: Nos. 198 (via Eagles as part of Sopoaga trade) and 206

Seventh round: No. 244

#29

Players: Devin McCourty, Ben Watson, Logan Mankins

Games per year: 14.26

Starts per year: 13.06

Pro Bowl trips: 2.33

All-Pro selections: 0.33

Years as primary starter*: 7

Career length*: 7.67

All told, a Belichick selection in this area is a solid, if unspectacular, starter.

#62

Players: Aaron Dobson, Terrence Wheatley, Brandon Spikes, Marquise Hill, Deion Branch

Games per year: 8.96

Starts per year: 5.82

Pro Bowl trips: 0

All-Pro selections: 0

Years as primary starter: 2.2

Career length: 4.6

This player is a marginal starter, and is likely viewed as a disappointment, considering draft position.

#93

Players: Taylor Price, Jake Bequette, Duron Harmon, Kevin O'Connell, Guss Scott, Kenyatta Jones

Games per year: 5.29

Starts per year: 1.21

Pro Bowl trips: 0

All-Pro selections: 0

Years as primary starter: 0.17

Career length: 2.83

This player is a largely replaceable special teamer or backup.

#130

Players: Greg Randall, Kareem Brown, Cedric Cobbs, Jonathan Wilhite, James Sanders

Games per year: 8.58

Starts per year: 4.10

Pro Bowl trips: 0

All-Pro selections: 0

Years as primary starter: 0.8

Career length: 4

This player, like #93, is primarily a special teamer or backup, but, interestingly, plays and starts more than #93, and over a longer career.

#140

Players: Marcus Cannon, Dave Stachelski

Games per year: 8.42

Starts per year: 1.17

Pro Bowl trips: 0

All-Pro selections: 0

Years as primary starter: 0

Career length: 2.5

Small sample size here, but this player is primarily a backup, though one that plays a lot.

#198

Players: Bo Ruud, Nate Ebner, Jake Ingram, Tom Brady, Leonard Myers, David Nugent, Kliff Kingsbury

Games per year: 7.99 (7.03)

Starts per year: 2.04 (0.11)

Pro Bowl trips: 1.29 (0)

All-Pro selections: 0.29 (0)

Years as primary starter: 1.71 (0)

Career length: 3.71 (2)

The main numbers here show a pretty good player, but there is an outlier in the list above that skews the statistics. Stripping out the outlier, the numbers in parentheses reflect a player that plays a lot, but over a short career, starting very infrequently.

#206

Players: Ted Larsen, Thomas Welch, Myron Pryor, Justise Hairston, Corey Hilliard, Dan Stevenson, Le Kevin Smith

Games per year: 6.46

Starts per year: 1.53

Pro Bowl trips: 0

All-Pro selections: 0

Years as primary starter: 0.43

Career length: 3.57

This reflects another backup or special-teams player. Not bad for this low in the draft, however.

#244

Players: Ethan Kelley, Mike Elgin, Brandon Deaderick

Games per year: 6.92

Starts per year: 2.00

Pro Bowl trips: 0

All-Pro selections: 0

Years as primary starter: 0.33

Career length: 3.00

This is another area in which the typical Belichick player is likely better than average, considering draft position.

I will follow up soon with comparisons of Belichick-era Patriots draft picks with league-wide averages in the Belichick era.

*Note that this number is computed using both active players and players out of football, and is therefore not to be interpreted as reflecting an entire career.

"Franchise Tag," or "Really Good Kicker Tag?"

A perennial NFL story line at this time of year is the speculation about which players will be tagged as "Franchise" players, and the attendant kerfuffle over the designation of certain players by position. Most recently, it was Baltimore defender Terrell Suggs, nominally a linebacker, who felt he was due the higher salary associated with defensive ends. This year, it is (will be?) New Orleans player Jimmy Graham, nominally a tight end, who may file a grievance to receive the higher salary associated with wide receivers. The crux of both players' arguments is that they spend a greater proportion of their playing time lined up on the field in a manner more closely associated with the higher-salaried positions. The designated salary for Franchise players each year is determined by the top-end of the salaries at the tagged player's position.

Since the spirit of the Franchise designation is to avoid the loss of players regarded as essential to the franchise (team), it seems rather ridiculous that the salary of such a player should be dependent on his position. On most teams, the most essential player is the quarterback, a running back, or maybe a key defender. Regardless, if a player is deemed to be essential to the health of the team, it shouldn't matter what his position is. Because of this weird quirk in the structure of the rule, recent years have seen kickers, punters, guards, backup quarterbacks, and countless forgettable players of all positions designated as their team's "Franchise" player. The most absurd instance of this phenomenon came in 2012, when six punters or kickers were tagged. Is it possible that a specialist was the best player on six different teams?

If this is the spirit of the designation, then the best solution to these fights over a player's position is to restructure the Franchise designation to pay the designated player an average of the top salaries in the league, regardless of position. I'm not certain the number of top salaries to include, but 32 is not a bad place to start the discussion, as there are 32 teams in the league. A smaller number would make the salary higher, obviously, and may be better. That is a detail that can be worked out; getting the concept right is the important part.