In preparation for the upcoming NFL Draft, I wanted to have a look at what the Patriots have done at or near the selections they've got this year. I gathered data on their past drafts from Pro Football Reference, and the projected picks from WEEI. I will look at all picks within three of the expected picks in order to gather a more meaningful amount of data. I will post a followup after the draft, as the likelihood the Patriots use all of these picks and no others asymptotically approaches zero. The statistics can be viewed as representative of an "average player" drafted in a given area by Belichick since 2000.
The picks currently held by the Patriots are as follows:
First round: No. 29 overallSecond round: No. 62 overallThird round: No. 93 overallFourth round: Nos. 130 and 140 (140 is compensatory — the last pick of the fourth round)Fifth round: None (pick dealt to Philadelphia in Isaac Sopoaga trade)Sixth round: Nos. 198 (via Eagles as part of Sopoaga trade) and 206Seventh round: No. 244
Players: Devin McCourty, Ben Watson, Logan Mankins
Games per year: 14.26
Starts per year: 13.06
Pro Bowl trips: 2.33
All-Pro selections: 0.33
Years as primary starter*: 7
Career length*: 7.67
All told, a Belichick selection in this area is a solid, if unspectacular, starter.
Games per year: 8.96
Starts per year: 5.82
Pro Bowl trips: 0
All-Pro selections: 0
Years as primary starter: 2.2
Career length: 4.6
This player is a marginal starter, and is likely viewed as a disappointment, considering draft position.
Games per year: 5.29
Starts per year: 1.21
Pro Bowl trips: 0
All-Pro selections: 0
Years as primary starter: 0.17
Career length: 2.83
This player is a largely replaceable special teamer or backup.
Games per year: 8.58
Starts per year: 4.10
Pro Bowl trips: 0
All-Pro selections: 0
Years as primary starter: 0.8
Career length: 4
This player, like #93, is primarily a special teamer or backup, but, interestingly, plays and starts more than #93, and over a longer career.
Games per year: 8.42
Starts per year: 1.17
Pro Bowl trips: 0
All-Pro selections: 0
Years as primary starter: 0
Career length: 2.5
Small sample size here, but this player is primarily a backup, though one that plays a lot.
Players: Bo Ruud, Nate Ebner, Jake Ingram, Tom Brady, Leonard Myers, David Nugent, Kliff Kingsbury
Games per year: 7.99 (7.03)
Starts per year: 2.04 (0.11)
Pro Bowl trips: 1.29 (0)
All-Pro selections: 0.29 (0)
Years as primary starter: 1.71 (0)
Career length: 3.71 (2)
The main numbers here show a pretty good player, but there is an outlier in the list above that skews the statistics. Stripping out the outlier, the numbers in parentheses reflect a player that plays a lot, but over a short career, starting very infrequently.
Players: Ted Larsen, Thomas Welch, Myron Pryor, Justise Hairston, Corey Hilliard, Dan Stevenson, Le Kevin Smith
Games per year: 6.46
Starts per year: 1.53
Pro Bowl trips: 0
All-Pro selections: 0
Years as primary starter: 0.43
Career length: 3.57
This reflects another backup or special-teams player. Not bad for this low in the draft, however.
Games per year: 6.92
Starts per year: 2.00
Pro Bowl trips: 0
All-Pro selections: 0
Years as primary starter: 0.33
Career length: 3.00
This is another area in which the typical Belichick player is likely better than average, considering draft position.
I will follow up soon with comparisons of Belichick-era Patriots draft picks with league-wide averages in the Belichick era.
*Note that this number is computed using both active players and players out of football, and is therefore not to be interpreted as reflecting an entire career.
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