2014 Patriots Draft: Historical Comparisons

I recently posted a study of Belichick-era Patriots draft picks, based on the expected draft position of the Patriots in 2014. In this post, I will compare the "average player" taken by the Patriots at those positions since 2000 with the "average player" taken league-wide over the same span.

#29 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 14.26 / 12.83 = 1.11
(This indicates that Patriots draftees in this range play 11% more games per year on average than their peers.)

Starts per year: 13.06 / 8.17 = 1.60

Pro Bowl trips: 2.33 / 0.63 = 3.70

All-Pro selections: 0.33 / 0.14 = 2.36

Years as primary starter: 7.00 / 3.45 = 2.03

Career length*: 7.67 / 5.90 = 1.30

Weighted career approximate value**: 51.67 / 27.07 = 1.91

Belichick grade***: 1.66

This is outstanding. Belichick-drafted players in this range could be thought of as 66% better than the league average in this range.

#62 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 8.96 / 11.03 = 0.81

Starts per year: 5.82 / 6.27 = 0.93

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.35 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.04 = 0.00

Years as primary starter: 2.20 / 2.60 = 0.85

Career length: 4.60 / 5.36 = 0.86

Weighted career approximate value: 15.02 / 20.31 = 0.75

Belichick grade: 0.80

This is a lesser area for Belichick. Players he has drafted have consistently underperformed their peers.

#93 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 5.29 / 10.44 = 0.51

Starts per year: 1.21 / 4.24 = 0.29

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.10 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.05 = 0.00

Years as primary starter: 0.17 / 1.61 = 0.11

Career length: 2.83 / 4.67 = 0.61

Weighted career approximate value: 1.83 / 13.20 = 0.14

Belichick grade: 0.33

This is abysmal. There's really no other way to put it. For Belichick, this range, in relative terms, has been a failure.

#130 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 8.58 / 8.41 = 1.02

Starts per year: 4.10 / 2.70 = 1.52

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.03 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.00 = [N/A]

Years as primary starter: 0.80 / 0.90 = 0.89

Career length: 4.00 / 3.95 = 1.01

Weighted career approximate value: 10.80 / 8.71 = 1.24

Belichick grade: 1.14

This is a value area for Belichick. He drafts players in this range that are 14% better than their peers.

#140 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 8.42 / 9.24 = 0.91

Starts per year: 1.17 / 2.98 = 0.39

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.18 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.08 = 0.00

Years as primary starter: 0.00 / 1.45 = 0.00

Career length: 2.5 / 4.42 = 0.57

Weighted career approximate value: 3 / 10.79 = 0.28

Belichick grade: 0.52

Belichick players are about half as good as their peers in this range. It's not the train wreck that #93 is, but this is not good, by any measure. 

#198 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 7.99 / 6.01 = 1.33

Starts per year: 2.04 / 1.90 = 1.07

Pro Bowl trips: 1.29 / 0.14 = 9.21

All-Pro selections: 0.29 / 0.02 = 14.50

Years as primary starter: 1.71 / 0.72 = 2.38

Career length: 3.71 / 3.12 = 1.19

Weighted career approximate value: 25.67 / 8.06 = 3.18

Belichick grade: 2.14

This is obviously Belichick's best range, given the inclusion of Tom Brady. Even excluding Brady, Belichick's score for this range is 1.64, which is still very good.

#206 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 6.46 / 6.51 = 0.99

Starts per year: 1.53 / 1.69 = 0.90

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.03 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.00 = [N/A]

Years as primary starter: 0.43 / 0.53 = 0.81

Career length: 3.57 / 3.10 = 1.15

Weighted career approximate value: 7.00 / 7.18 = 0.98

Belichick grade: 1.00

This is Belichick's most "average" drafting position. 

#244 (Patriots) (league)

Games per year: 6.92 / 6.17 = 1.12

Starts per year: 2.00 / 1.55 = 1.29

Pro Bowl trips: 0.00 / 0.01 = 0.00

All-Pro selections: 0.00 / 0.00 = [N/A]

Years as primary starter: 0.33 / 0.46 = 0.72

Career length: 3.00 / 2.86 = 1.05

Weighted career approximate value: 7.00 / 5.01 = 1.40

Belichick grade: 1.20

This is another top value area for Belichick.


Overall grade: 1.11

This score indicates that, over the range of picks the Patriots have this year, Belichick has drafted 11% better than league average. Without Brady, his overall grade is still 1.04.



*Note that this number is computed using both active players and players out of football, and is therefore not to be interpreted as reflecting an entire career.

**See explanation here. See more explanation here.

***This is the total of the Patriots numbers divided by the total of the league numbers. A score of 1.0 represents a quality equal to that of the league. A score of 1.23 can be interpreted as 23% better than the league average.