Early prediction for the rest of the week: world commodity markets will go totally haywire while traders figure out the new lay of the land. Oil, obviously, but since various futures are relatively good substitutes, and futures impact spot prices*, all commodities will likely be screwy for a bit.
*This is a point of contention, I know, but I am asserting it, and, on this, I am not alone.
When you say "totally haywire" and "screwy" do you mean more upsy-downsy, more volatile? I think there is a way to bet on that, isn't there? We might be able to get rich by betting on a period of extraordinary volatility.
ReplyDeleteI do mean volatile.
ReplyDeleteThis could be bet on, but I'm firmly of the belief that, by the time I get an idea, the info is priced in. Even that assumes that I am right, which is another potential failure mode.
If you have a lot of self confidence and an appetite for risk, and are relatively liquid, here you go: http://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/avellane/Lecture11Quant.pdf