05 April 2013

Stockman, Morality Plays, and Wishful Thinking

An excellent video here on the David Stockman kerfuffle. The most important takeaway for me was the idea, previously articulated elsewhere, that macroeconomics is not a morality play. That is to say, if the answer to a macro problem is normatively pleasing, that fact is a coincidence.

Many of us have normative views about 'what ought to be.' These views may differ from person to person; that's ok. Views on 'how the world works' are of a different genus. These things are testable. Disagreements of this nature are resolvable through empiricism, if the data exist.

A related idea: if your theory of how the world works is untestable, it's not really a theory; it's probably just a wish.



**UPDATE: Neil Irwin disassembles Stockman's argument, looks around inside, and doesn't find much.

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